Guest contributor: Jonathan Roberts

With the NFL schedule released, my friend Jonathan and I wanted to make some early predictions for how we think this upcoming NFL season will go. We’ve each made our own picks for division standings, playoff seedings, and shared our takes on why certain teams will thrive—or completely fall apart. Some of our predictions align, but we definitely have our disagreements.

We approached this with a mix of optimism, realism, and a healthy dose of hot takes. From whether the Broncos are finally ready to challenge the Chiefs, to what to make of the Patriots’ rebuild under Mike Vrabel, we’ve tried to break down the key storylines for each division. Let’s dive into it.

AFC West

Evan

1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) [3rd seed]
2. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) [5th seed]
3. Denver Broncos (10-7) [6th seed]
4. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11) [13th]

The West will be the most competitive division in the AFC. I know this has been said several times in the past several years, and has never come true, but between the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers, this will be a tough fight. 

The Chiefs will still come out on top at 11-6 and 4-2 in the division, but we will see them slow down a bit. Many of their top players are getting older, and they lost a lot of talent via free agency. They’re still the team to beat, but the Broncos and Chargers are closing the gap on them.

The Broncos are a young and up-and-coming team that is poised for success this upcoming season. I have them going 10-7 again, mostly because they still need some additional firepower on offense to take that next step. I also have the Chargers going 10-7, down from 11-6 last year, mostly because they have to face the gauntlet of NFC East teams this year. 

The Raiders will be okay. I like Pete Carroll, Geno Smith is an upgrade at QB, and I love Ashton Jeanty, but there just isn’t enough talent across the team to contend for the division. 

Jonathan

1. Denver Broncos (12-5) [3rd seed]
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) [5th seed]
3. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) [7th seed]
4. Las Vegas Raiders (5-12) [15th]

The Broncos had a great offseason, covering their weaknesses and doubling down on their strengths. There’s a real possibility that this team has the best defense in the league. An already elite secondary added a talented ballhawk in the first round of the draft, the hole at linebacker was filled twice over through free agency, and Alex Singleton getting healthy (he led the league in tackles in 2023), and the edge rush is going to be as potent as ever.

The Chiefs are going to be great as always and will be a threat in the playoffs. That said, I think this is the season that we finally see the Patrick Mahomes mega-contract catch up with them. They’ve been bleeding free-agent talent and haven’t been able to keep pace in the draft. Will an aging Kelce be enough?

I liked the Chargers’ draft, but their strength was their defense, and especially their front seven. With two major losses on that side of the ball going unreplaced, what will their new identity be? I don’t think the receivers can keep pace with the rest of the division.

If Jeanty can be the next Christian McCaffery (a very difficult bar to meet), what is this team’s ceiling? The Panthers were never able to maximize his career, and I doubt this iteration of the Raiders is ready to do any better. They’ll steal a few games with big plays, but will be picking 8th overall as their reward.

AFC East

Evan

1. Buffalo Bills  (12-5) [2nd seed]
2. New England Patriots (9-8) [9th]
3. Miami Dolphins (7-10) [11th]
4. New York Jets (5-12) [15th]

Not much needs to be said about the Bills winning the East. This is their division to lose, and they will be one of the top contenders in the AFC. 

Things started getting surprising for me when I realized how much I’ve soured on the Dolphins and how much I love what the Patriots are doing. For the Dolphins, I’ve just lost faith in Tua’s ability to lead a playoff-caliber team, and as fun as Mike McDaniel is, I find he often relies too heavily on complicated schemes rather than getting his team to master the basics.

The Patriots, on the other hand, are on the come-up. Hiring Mike Vrabel was an excellent move, and I see him having a major impact on the team’s culture. They also drafted incredibly well and have added some solid free agents this offseason. Combine that with Drake Maye’s continued development, and you’ve got the Patriots’ first winning record since Brady left. 

The Jets will still be the Jets. They’re going to be bad. Not much else to say. Sorry, Justin Fields.

Jonathan

1. Buffalo Bills (14-3) [1st seed]
2. Miami Dolphins (9-8) [9th]
3. New England Patriots (7-10) [11th]
4. New York Jets (3-14) [16th]

The Bills once again failed to address their receiver depth, but did okay to improve some of their gaps on defense. Yet, Josh Allen is too good, their division is an absolute cakewalk, and they’ll be able to rip through a lot of wins as a result. I see them as an early exit in the playoffs, but they can at least spectate the first round as their reward for the 5th easiest schedule in the league.

If you don’t include their roster getting healthier, the Dolphins got markedly worse this offseason. They had many free agency losses and didn’t fill their holes well in the draft. Assuming health doesn’t become a problem again, they’ll have an okay season, but this could turn sour fast.

The Patriots had a sneaky good offseason, and they’ve given Drake Maye a great chance to prove himself. I liked Maye coming out of the draft, but he hasn’t quite risen to the occasion yet and needs to prove himself before I think he can elevate this team beyond the many remaining roster holes they still have.

The Jets focused heavily on the offense in the offseason, but left their weak front 7 to fend for themselves. Giving Justin Fields every opportunity to succeed will look like a terrible idea this season, but don’t discount their effort. I’m a fan of building a roster up before buying your next QB, and the 2nd pick in the draft will do well for this team.

AFC North

Evan 

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) [1st seed]
2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) [7th seed]
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-10) [10th]
4. Cleveland Browns (4-13) [16th]

The way I see it, the Ravens are going to be the team to beat in the AFC this next season. I think this team will only be better as their young receivers grow, and they’ll now have a better understanding of how to get Derrick Henry to have an impact. 

The Bengals will once again be carried as far as Joe Burrow can take them, which, admittedly, is pretty far. They still have massive question marks on defense, but I think their offense will be good enough to carry them to a Wild Card spot. 

I know you’re not supposed to bet against the Steelers, but they don’t have any sort of plan at QB. Between that and having to face both the NFC North and AFC East, there are just too many good teams on their schedule for them to come away with a winning record. 

The Browns are going to stink. Their quarterback room is an absolute mess and shows a serious lack of planning or strategy. The rest of their roster, with the exception of a few standouts, is mediocre at best. 

Jonathan 

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) [2nd seed]
2. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) [6th seed]
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-12) [12th]
4. Cleveland Browns (5-12) [14th]

The Ravens look like an absolute powerhouse on both ends of the ball. They’ve got a tougher schedule than the Bills, and I tend to give them a few losses to division rivals they shouldn’t allow, but don’t let the 2 seed fool you. This team will be deadly in the playoffs.

The Bengals will be walking a tightrope this season. I have them losing 5 of their first 6 games as they walk a bit of a schedule gauntlet and try to overcome historically slow starts to every season. In this article, I have them recovering well and making playoffs, but it could easily fall the other way if they aren’t careful.

The Steelers had a solid free agency and will have a dangerous defense. Unfortunately, their offense is unlikely to rise to the occasion with Mason Rudolph and Will Howard fighting for the starting job. A few more offseasons of excellence, and they could become a threat.

The Browns are in freefall. They still have a couple of studs in Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, but overall, the roster has a ton of holes. The quarterback room is full of hopefuls, which may work against them as a single bad game (of which there will be many) will inevitably lead to unrest in the fanbase and calls for change.

AFC South

Evan 

1. Houston Texans (11-6) [4th seed]
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) [8th]
3. Indianapolis Colts (6-11) [12th]
4. Tennessee Titans (5-12) [14th]

Similar to the Bills in the East, this division is the Texans to lose. They have by far and away the best roster and, barring any major injuries, should be able to claim the division with ease. 

Jacksonville is stuck in football purgatory, and I don’t think they did enough this off-season to get themselves out. I think this is going to be a reset year for the Jags as Trevor Lawrence and the offense once again learn a new system. 

The Colts’ organization is broken. From all reports, there is a serious lack of culture and work ethic in the building, which was reflected when Anthony Richardson decided to sit out a play last year. Things at the top are going to have to change before this team becomes any good.

The Titans going 5-12 is not a negative reflection on Cam Ward. I think Ward is going to be a solid NFL QB. The Titans are just a rebuilding team that still has a way to go. 

Jonathan

1. Houston Texans (9-8) [4th seed]
2. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) [8th]
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-9) [10th]
4. Tennessee Titans (5-12) [13th]

None of these teams had a good offseason, in my opinion. I’m not opposed to the idea of a bounceback season from CJ Stroud, but his receiver room is largely unproven, and their offensive line has a lot of questions. Other than Will Anderson Jr, the defense is full of holes. Still, an easy division is enough to earn a playoff bid.

The Colts will be greatly improved on offense this season, mostly as a result of aging and familiarity. That said, their defense leaves much to be desired. I don’t believe that Anthony Richardson will be enough to keep pace with many opponents, and the Colts lose out on the division title and on the playoffs by tiebreaker.

The Jaguars had a good enough offseason, but they’ve been an absolute mess for so long that I don’t expect much to be different. I think that Trevor Lawrence will have a bit of a revival this season and give some hope to the franchise, but ultimately, they’ll come up short once again.

Cam Ward is a great addition and easily the best QB of this draft in my opinion. Unfortunately, the Titans have a lot to overcome in terms of talent. Calvin Ridley is Ward’s only true target, and the defense is still full of holes. That said, I think Johnny Hekker is poised for a career year!

Final playoff standings

Evan 

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-5)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
4. Houston Texans (11-6)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
6. Denver Broncos (10-7)
7. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)

Jonathan 

1. Buffalo Bills (14-3)
2. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
3. Denver Broncos (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-8)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)

There you have it, our totally well-researched, thought-out, and not at all way too early AFC predictions. Check back in for our next post in this series, as we will be tackling the NFC next. And let us know in the comments what your predictions are!